时间：2024-09-23 17:11:25 来源：摩登家庭人人影视网 作者：资讯 阅读：449次

This is the fourth in a series of interviews with international experts on Korea to discuss pending issues surrounding the nation on the occasion of the beginning of 2018 ― ED.

Time to be ‘totally in sync with US' over Pyongyang's overture

By Kim Jae-kyoung

Joseph DeTrani

North Korea's overture to South Korea for dialogue shows signs the reclusive regime has started to feel the pinch of sanctions, according to a former high-ranking U.S. diplomat.

He stressed Pyongyang's shift toward dialogue is a positive development but any efforts for talks at a cost to South Korea-U.S. ties should be avoided.

"Sanctions on North Korea are biting, that's obvious," Joseph DeTrani, a former U.S. special envoy for the six-party talks with North Korea, said in an interview. He helped broker a 2005 agreement on North Korea's nuclear program.

He said the North is more isolated than ever before, given its flagrant disregard of U.N. Security Council resolutions imposed because of Pyongyang's multitude of ballistic missile launches and nuclear tests.

"It's fair to assume this factored into Kim Jong-un's overture to South Korea for immediate dialogue with the prospect of the North participating in the Winter Olympics in PyeongChang," he said.

DeTrani, currently a professor at Missouri State University's Graduate Department of Defense and Strategic Studies in Fairfax, Virginia, stressed the North's participation in the Winter Olympics would be a good development, but it should not be at the expense of the close relationship with the U.S.

"Thus, this is the time for the Moon Jae-in government to be totally in sync with the U.S., through close collaboration," he said.

"Historically, North Korea has tried _ unsuccessfully _ to put a wedge between the U.S. and South Korea. We should always be mindful of this, given Kim Jong-un's overture to the South."

His remarks came after Kim said in his New Year's speech Monday that Pyongyang was willing to send a delegation to the PyeongChang Winter Olympics, scheduled for Feb. 9 to 25. He said the two Koreas could meet to discuss the North's possible participation in the Games.

However, while offering a conciliatory gesture toward the South, Kim remained hostile to the U.S., saying he had a nuclear button on his desk and the entire U.S. was within range of his weapons.

DeTrani said offering to delay Korea-U.S. joint military exercises until after the Winter Olympic Games was a subject under discussion between Seoul and Washington.

Seoul offers high-level talks with Pyongyang on Jan. 9 2018-01-02 16:21  |  North Korea
His concern is North Korea may see this as a sign of weakness and a concession to which it may not be willing to reciprocate, with an offer to refrain from any missile launches and nuclear tests during the Olympics.

"To unilaterally delay joint military exercises without any overture from the North to reciprocate by suspending missile launches and nuclear tests would be a mistake," he said.

ICBM immediate threat to US

DeTrani, also a former director of the U.S. National Counter Proliferation Center said since Pyongyang has established it has an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capable of reaching the U.S., it should refrain from any additional ICBM launches.

"Indeed, if there is a future ICBM launch that is viewed as an imminent threat to the U.S. or its allies, I personally believe missile defense deployments will be used to intercept and destroy the North Korean missile," he said.

"Destroying such a missile is an internationally recognized lawful defensive act. This North Korea must understand."

A clear red line in his view is if North Korea used a nuclear weapon or if it sold a nuclear weapon or fissile material to a rogue state or a non-state actor.

"Any of these acts should generate an immediate and overwhelming military response from the U.S. and its allies," he said.

In order for North Korea to join talks with the U.S. and South Korea, he said, "Imposing sanctions and enhancing military deterrence capabilities, while providing an "off-ramp" is a viable and appropriate strategy."

He said although North Korea has nuclear weapons, it would be a mistake to accept or recognize North Korea as a nuclear weapons state.

"Unconditional talks with North Korea should be sufficient inducement to get it to the table for exploratory discussions," he said.

From his perspective, at those talks, North Korea could make its case as to why it wants nuclear weapons for security, and the U.S. could make its case that having nuclear weapons would not provide the security North Korea wants and needs.

"Caving into North Korea by accepting the North as a nuclear weapons state would spark a regional nuclear arms race, with other countries pursuing their own nuclear weapons capabilities," he said.

Regarding a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defense system, the former U.S. mission manager for North Korea said China needs to understand that current and any future THAAD deployments are directed at an aggressive and unpredictable North Korea.

"Of course, if North Korea agrees to a moratorium on missile launches and nuclear tests and returns to negotiations, then future additional deployments of THAAD would not be necessary," he said.

"Hopefully, China can help to get North Korea to halt future missile launches and nuclear tests and convince Kim Jong-un that a return to negotiations is in the interest of all countries, including North Korea."

DeTrani was the U.S. representative to the Korea Energy Development Organization and president of the Intelligence and National Security Alliance.

(责任编辑：行业动态)

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