This photo released on Dec. 17, 2023, by North Korea's state media shows Kim Jong-un, its leader, speaking during a key party meeting in Pyongyang, North Korea, Dec. 16, 2023. Experts said on Sunday that Kim's message of sympathy for the victims of a series of earthquakes in Japan appears to be aimed at undermining South Korea's trilateral security ties with Japan and the U.S. Yonhap

In his first message to Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un on Friday expressed condolences over the deadly earthquake in western Japan last week in a letter.

According to Saturday’s report from North Korea’s official Korean Central News Agency, Kim “sincerely hoped that the people in the affected areas would eradicate the aftermath of earthquakes and restore their stable life at the earliest date possible.”

On the same day the letter was sent, North Korea fired more than 200 artillery rounds into waters off its western coast, prompting hundreds of South Korean island residents near the maritime border to evacuate to shelters. The next day, it fired an additional 60 artillery rounds in the same area, further stoking tensions.

Experts told The Korea Times on Sunday that the timing of the two contrasting North Korean messages ― one conveyed by its warm remarks and the other by military action ― was no coincidence. They said the North may be trying to isolate South Korea as part of its effort to sabotage the Seoul-Tokyo-Washington security cooperation by taking a different strategy to each country.

“I think the goal is weakening the trilateral partnership,” said Lee Ki-tae, an expert on North Korea-Japan relationship at the Korea Institute for National Unification, a state-funded think tank. “North Korea shows no interest in resuming talks with the U.S. under Joe Biden, while strengthening its hard-line stance toward the South. It might have thought that it should aim for the Japan link.”

Such a letter from North Korea’s top leader is unprecedented. When major quakes hit Japan in 1995 and 2011, Pyongyang’s diplomatic message of sympathy came from high-ranking officials, not Kim Jong-il, the leader at the time.

As North Korean abductions of Japanese citizens remain a sensitive political issue, leaders in Tokyo have long attempted to find diplomatic resolutions, all to no avail so far. Officially, 17 such abductees are recognized by the Japanese government.

Kang Chae-yeon, a scholar at the National Institute for Unification Education, believes North Korea could step up efforts in the coming months to rebuild diplomatic networks with Japan by taking advantage of that political need.

“But given what North Korea has done and insisted to date, I am skeptical that any progress would be made in resolving the issue,” Kang said. “Also, Japan is expected to tread carefully, as any diplomatic concessions to the regime could draw opposition from the U.S. and South Korea.”

Experts said any significant changes in Japan’s relations with North Korea are unlikely, at least in the short run, as long as Washington maintains its tough stance on Pyongyang.

“So the key would be the outcome of the U.S. presidential election (scheduled for Nov. 5). It is expected to affect not only the U.S.'s future policy on and relationship with North Korea but also those of Japan,” Lee said.

Speaking to journalists, Yoshimasa Hayashi, chief cabinet secretary, said the government in Tokyo “is grateful” for support messages from a number of countries, including North Korea, according to local media reports. But he did not answer if the Kishida administration would respond to the letter from Kim.

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